Megatrends in Healthcare: Review for the Swiss National Science Foundation's National Research Programme 74 (NRP74) "Smarter Health Care".

Objectives: In this paper, we present a review of some relevant megatrends in healthcare conducted as part of the Swiss National Science Foundation's National Research Programme 74 (NRP74) "Smarter Health Care." Our aim is to stimulate discussions about long-term tendencies underlying the current and future development of the healthcare system. Methods: Our team-a multidisciplinary panel of researchers involved in the NRP74-went through an iterative process of internal consultations followed by a rapid literature review with the goal of reaching group consensus concerning the most relevant megatrends in healthcare. Results: Five megatrends were identified, namely: 1) Socio-demographic shifts. 2) Broadening meaning of "health." 3) Empowered patients and service users. 4) Digitalization in healthcare. 5) Emergence of new models of care. The main features of each megatrend are presented, drawing often on the situation in Switzerland as a paradigmatic example and adding reflections on the potential influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on them. Conclusion: Considering the long-term megatrends affecting the evolution of healthcare is important-amongst other things-to understand and contextualise the relevance and implications of innovative health services research results.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the continuity of care for at-risk patients in Swiss primary care settings: A mixed-methods study.

Continuity of care is important for the health of aging individuals with comorbidities. When initial coronavirus mitigation campaigns involved messaging such as "Stay at home-stay safe," and banned provision of non-urgent care, at-risk patients depending upon regular consultations with general practitioners (GPs) faced confusion about the possibility of seeking non-COVID-19 related healthcare. We employed a sequential explanatory mixed-methods design, consisting of a quantitative component followed by a qualitative component, to understand at-risk patients' health services use during the COVID-19 pandemic in Switzerland. Quantitatively, we used electronic medical records data from 272 GPs and 266,796 patients. Based on pre-pandemic data, we predicted weekly consultation counts as well as weekly measurement counts (blood pressure, glycated hemoglobin, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol) per 100 patients that would be expected in 2020 in absence of a pandemic and compared those to actual observed values. Qualitatively, we conducted 23 semi-structured interviews with 24 GPs (∼45 min) and 37 interviews with at-risk patients (∼35 min). Quantitative results demonstrate a significant decrease in consultation and measurement counts during the first shutdown period, with consultation counts quickly returning to normal and moving within expected values for the rest of 2020. Qualitative data contextualize these findings with GPs describing constantly implementing material, administrative, and communication changes. GPs reported communication gaps with the authorities and noted a lack of clear guidelines delineating how to define "at-risk patients" and what cases were "urgent" to treat during shutdowns. Patient interviews show that patient-level factors, such as fear of contracting coronavirus, perceptions that GPs were overburdened, and a sense of solidarity, influenced patients' decisions to consult less at the beginning of the pandemic. Findings demonstrate communication gaps during pandemic periods and provide valuable lessons for future pandemic preparedness, particularly the need for contingency plans for the overall healthcare system instead of plans focusing only on the infectious agent itself.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Intensity of Health Services Use in General Practice: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Objectives: We aimed to explore the impact of the Swiss shutdown in spring 2020 on the intensity of health services use in general practice. Methods: Based on an electronic medical records database, we built one patient cohort each for January-June 2019 (control, 173,523 patients) and 2020 (179,086 patients). We used linear regression to model weekly consultation counts and blood pressure (BP) and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) measurement counts per 100 patients and predicted non-shutdown values. Analyses were repeated for selected at-risk groups and different age groups. Results: During the shutdown, weekly consultation counts were lower than predicted by -17.2% (total population), -16.5% (patients with hypertension), -17.5% (diabetes), -17.6% (cardiovascular disease), -15.7% (patients aged <60 years), -20.4% (60-80 years), and -14.5% (>80 years). Weekly BP counts were reduced by -35.3% (total population) and -35.0% (hypertension), and HbA1c counts by -33.2% (total population) and -29.8% (diabetes). p-values <0.001 for all reported estimates. Conclusion: Our results document consequential decreases in consultation counts and chronic disease monitoring during the shutdown. It is crucial that health systems remain able to meet non-COVID-19-related health care needs.